What is the "free" tier actually costing you? An attempt to make the trade visible.
| Year | Sub cost/mo | Extracted/mo | Gap |
|---|
These figures are illustrative, not precise. The point is not to produce an exact number; it is to make the trade visible. The inputs are proxies; the outputs are order-of-magnitude estimates. See the Dictionary entry for the conceptual framing.
Core formula:
value/month = (base_CPM × intent_multiplier × stickiness_multiplier × income_multiplier) / 1000 × impressions/hour × hours/day × 30
Base CPM by service (US, programmatic, $ per 1,000 impressions):
Intent-shaping multiplier: 3×. A search engine observes what you wanted a moment ago. An AI assistant can shape what you do next. The 2×–5× range in the spec; we use 3× as the central estimate. Source: analyst commentary on conversational AI advertising premiums (Forrester, 2023–2025).
Stickiness multiplier: 1× to 50×. The slider maps 0–100 to a log-ish curve: value 0 = 1×, value 50 = ~8×, value 100 = 50×. Anchors:
Pharma DTC CPMs regularly run $40–$80 before any intent-shaping premium. When an AI assistant reads loneliness as a market signal, the stickiness premium is real.
Income bracket multiplier: 1×, 1.5×, 2.2×, 3×. Programmatic bidding prices high-income audiences at 2–3× median. Source: industry-standard CPM segmentation data.
Impressions per hour: 6. Estimated query-response pairs per hour of active use (roughly one every 10 minutes; conservative given some sessions are much faster). Each pair is one placement opportunity.
Subscription costs used: current published prices. ChatGPT Plus $20/mo; others $0/mo. Price escalator projection uses 12% per year, based on YouTube Premium ($12.99 → $13.99 → $18.99 → $22.99 over 4 years ≈ 15%/yr) and OpenAI's own trajectory; 12% is the conservative end.
Mispricing gap:
(extracted value/mo) − (subscription cost/mo) − (user threshold/mo).
When positive: the platform is extracting more than you've consented to charge for.
When negative: you are overcompensating relative to your own stated threshold.
All assumptions are contestable. If you have better data, the math is here and the source is on GitHub. The point is not the exact figure. The point is that there is a figure, and you weren't told what it was at signup.